Tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea, two Horn of Africa neighbours with a long and uneasy history, have intensified sharply in recent months. What started as political jabs and competing narratives has now escalated into a hardened war of words, raising alarms among diplomats, analysts, and regional observers who fear the possibility of renewed conflict.
A Crisis Rooted in Old and New Tensions
The current diplomatic flare-up draws heavily from two longstanding points of friction. The first is Ethiopia’s pursuit of access to the Red Sea. Since losing its coastline after Eritrea’s independence, Ethiopia’s lack of direct sea access has remained a sensitive national issue. Its leadership has, in recent years, described maritime access not merely as a strategic advantage but as an existential necessity for a nation of over 120 million people.
This renewed rhetoric has been received in Eritrea with deep suspicion. The government in Asmara views Ethiopia’s aspirations, especially references to long-term access to Red Sea ports, as a potential threat to Eritrea’s sovereignty. The port city of Assab, which lies just north of Ethiopia’s border, is frequently referenced in Ethiopian discourse about sea access, which has only worsened Eritrea’s anxieties.
The second major trigger is Ethiopia’s accusation that Eritrea is supporting armed factions within northern Ethiopia, particularly in Tigray and parts of the Amhara region. Ethiopia alleges that Eritrean authorities are aiding splinter groups of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), with the intention of destabilising Ethiopia from within. In a formal communication to the United Nations, Ethiopian officials claimed that Eritrea was preparing to “wage war” through proxies.
Asmara has dismissed all such allegations as “hostile propaganda” designed to paint Eritrea as an aggressor. Eritrean officials argue that Ethiopia is attempting to shift blame for its internal instability while simultaneously advancing its ambitions for maritime access.
Harsh Exchanges and Heightened Threats
What has made this moment particularly fraught is the tone of messaging coming from senior officials on both sides. Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki has publicly warned that Eritrea will not be intimidated by Ethiopia’s size or military capacity. In unusually sharp remarks, he criticised Ethiopian leaders for what he described as reckless behaviour and dismissed the notion that Ethiopia could overwhelm Eritrean forces through sheer numbers.
On Ethiopia’s side, officials maintain that their intentions are peaceful and rooted in dialogue, but their language continues to emphasise the strategic importance of resolving the sea-access question — a stance Eritrea views with mistrust.
The hostile back-and-forth has been amplified by growing frustration over the situation in Tigray. Eritrea remains deeply unhappy with the way the 2022 Pretoria Agreement, which ended the two-year conflict between Ethiopia and the TPLF, was structured. Eritrea was excluded from the negotiations despite having been heavily involved in the earlier stages of the war. That exclusion, analysts note, has fueled a lingering sense of betrayal in Asmara.
Signals of Military Readiness
Beyond the sharp rhetoric, developments on the ground have heightened concerns. Reports from diplomatic and regional sources suggest Ethiopia has increased its military presence near the Eritrean border. The troop movements may not be directly aggressive, but they signal preparation, or at least precaution, at a time of rising tension.
On the other side, Eritrea is believed to have initiated a broad military mobilisation. Eritrea maintains a long-standing system of indefinite national service, but recent activity suggests a renewed effort to strengthen its readiness.
While neither government has formally declared military intentions, the combination of troop movements, defensive readiness, and aggressive public statements has unsettled neighbouring countries, many of which still remember the devastating 1998–2000 Ethiopia-Eritrea war that claimed tens of thousands of lives.
Diplomatic Messaging and International Concern
Despite the escalating rhetoric, Ethiopia’s prime minister continues to publicly deny any plans for war with Eritrea. He has instead emphasised the need for a peaceful dialogue to resolve the long-running maritime issue, framing Ethiopia’s position as one driven by regional cooperation rather than confrontation. Ethiopian officials have also called on international partners to help facilitate constructive discussions.
Eritrea, meanwhile, insists that Ethiopia’s calls for dialogue cannot be trusted. In its view, Ethiopia’s actions in northern Ethiopia, coupled with its repeated references to Red Sea access, are signs of hidden intentions.
International organisations and think tanks monitoring the Horn of Africa have issued warnings that the situation could deteriorate rapidly if both sides fail to de-escalate. They caution that proxy confrontations in Tigray could evolve into direct state-to-state conflict. The fragile political landscape in the region, including unresolved grievances in Tigray and the ongoing turmoil in Sudan, increases the risk that a bilateral clash could trigger wider instability.
Broader Risks for the Horn of Africa
If the tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea were to spill into armed conflict, the consequences would be severe. Humanitarian groups worry that another war could trigger fresh displacement in a region already burdened by drought, food insecurity, and mass migration.
A renewed conflict could also have significant economic repercussions. Ethiopia currently relies heavily on Djibouti for port access, paying substantial fees annually. Any disruption to Ethiopia’s access logistics, or any shift toward aggressive attempts to secure alternative routes, would strain regional commerce.
Politically, neighbouring states such as Sudan, South Sudan, and Somalia could find themselves drawn into the fallout — either directly or through refugee flows and shifting alliances. The Horn of Africa is a region where domestic crises often intersect with regional interests, making conflicts difficult to contain.
A Dangerous Mix of History and Ambition
What makes the current moment particularly combustible is the blend of historic mistrust, unresolved border grievances, and new geopolitically charged ambitions. Ethiopia considers sea access a national priority. Eritrea views Ethiopia’s recent posturing as an existential threat. Both sides are struggling with internal political dynamics. And both are influenced by the unresolved aftermath of the Tigray conflict.
Although officials continue to deny any intention to return to war, many analysts note that both countries appear to be preparing for the possibility that diplomacy might fail.
The escalating war of words between Ethiopia and Eritrea has become too intense to dismiss as ordinary political rhetoric. Troop movements, public accusations, and mutual distrust have combined to create one of the most dangerous stand-offs in the Horn of Africa in years. While both sides insist they do not seek war, their actions and messaging suggest a region moving closer to the edge.
As international actors call for restraint, the challenge remains whether Ethiopia and Eritrea can shift from confrontation back to conversation — or whether the long shadow of their shared history will once again give way to conflict.
